27 December 2025
The political and military situation in southern Yemen has developed into a determining factor for regional stability and the security of international shipping lanes. The pursuit of an independent state in the south is no longer purely a political desire but is now supported by established institutions, territorial control, and a dedicated security apparatus. Ignoring this reality in international peace frameworks carries risks for the resurgence of extremist groups and the safety of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Historical foundations and restoration of state institutions
The basis for the current southern identity lies in the period following British rule. On Thursday, November 30, 1967, South Yemen obtained its independence, after which the People’s Republic of South Yemen was established as the first republic on the Arabian Peninsula. Between the year 1967 and the year 1990, this area functioned as a sovereign state with its own national symbols and functioning government agencies. The unification with North Yemen in the year 1990 proved to be short-lived and led to an armed conflict in the year 1994. This struggle resulted in the destruction of southern institutions and a systematic economic and political exclusion of the population in the south.
Rise of the Southern Transitional Council and local control
From the year 2007, dissatisfaction was expressed through the peaceful Hirak movement, which laid the foundation for current political structures. In the year 2017, the Southern Transitional Council was established to provide a unified political framework for southern ambitions. A crucial moment occurred in the year 2015, when the city of Aden was liberated from Houthi militias. This led to the restoration of local security and the formation of effective military units that exercise factual control in large parts of the area. The movement toward self-determination has consequently changed from an aspiration into an operational reality on the ground.
Hadramout as the strategic core of the region
The Hadramout region plays a key role in the economic and strategic future of the south. It is the largest southern area and possesses significant reserves of oil and natural resources, with direct access to the Arabian Sea. In the year 2016, the city of Mukalla and surrounding areas were liberated from Al-Qaeda by southern forces, during which the financial networks of the terror group were dismantled. In the month of May of the year 2023, a broad local consensus emerged for a federal future within a southern state. By the end of the year 2025, southern units strengthened their control over the entire Hadramout Valley, leading the region to be viewed as a possible capital option alongside the historic status of Aden.
Countering extremism and maritime security
Security forces in the south act as a barrier against both Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Iran-backed Houthi militias. In addition to previous actions in Mukalla, ongoing operations are taking place in Abyan, Shabwa, and Al-Mahra. In the month of December of the year 2025, the operation Siham Al-Sharq was launched to further reduce the threat of extremism. Through this military commitment, Iranian access to the Arabian Sea and the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait is blocked. In this way, the south functions as a guardian of global trade routes in one of the most sensitive maritime zones in the world.
Diplomatic relations and the path to peace
The position of Saudi Arabia regarding the southern question remains characterized by a certain ambiguity. Although the Riyadh Agreement of the year 2019 gave the Southern Transitional Council formal political legitimacy, the kingdom continues to place weight on Yemeni unity. At the same time, direct talks have been taking place since the year 2022 between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, in which the formal Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council are not directly at the table. This approach creates uncertainty about the durability of an eventual peace settlement. A structural solution to the conflict requires that the southern reality be integrated into international negotiation frameworks to prevent a recurrence of instability.
Sources: Executive Policy Brief: South Yemen Independence as a Strategic Variable Southern Transitional Council Press Service South Yemen
Andy Vermaut +32499357495